Autumn Budget 2025 Predictions

The Autumn Budget is fast approaching, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves set to take the spotlight on Wednesday, 26 November. It’s her first major Budget since taking office, and expectations are high.

The UK economy isn’t in the easiest position right now, growth is sluggish, borrowing is up, and public finances are under pressure. Reeves has promised to rebuild the economy, boost productivity, and make work “pay”, but doing all that while keeping borrowing under control won’t be simple.

So, what might we see? And what could it mean for you, your business, and your finances? Let’s take a look.

A Delicate Balancing Act

The government has boxed itself in a little. It’s pledged not to raise income tax, National Insurance or VAT; the big three that bring in the bulk of Treasury revenue. That leaves fewer obvious levers to pull.

Add to that:

· GDP growth is hovering around 1.2% for 2025, with forecasts suggesting another slowdown next year.

· Public borrowing remains higher than expected.

· Inflation has eased, but interest rates are still biting for homeowners and small businesses.

The challenge for Reeves will be how to stimulate growth and investment without spooking markets or burdening households already feeling the pinch.

What We Might Expect

1. “Stealth” Tax Rises

If the Chancellor keeps her promise not to touch the main tax rates, the next best option is to freeze tax thresholds, meaning as wages rise, more people quietly move into higher tax bands.

It’s already happening. Extending that freeze could raise billions without a single headline about “tax increases”. It’s subtle, but effective.

2. A Fresh Look at Property and Housing

There’s growing talk of reforming property taxation. Stamp Duty has long been criticised as clunky and unfair, and there are rumours of a wider overhaul; perhaps even a re-introduction of something resembling a property wealth tax or tweaks to landlord reliefs.

With the housing market slowing, this will be a politically sensitive area. But a reform could be pitched as “modernising” rather than penalising.

3. Support for Business Growth

Small and medium-sized businesses will be watching this Budget closely. Expect to hear more about:

· Reforms to business rates relief

· Adjustments to corporation tax allowances

· A possible extension of the full expensing scheme for investment

· Funding for green innovation and regional regeneration projects

The government knows private sector growth is key to recovery, so some business-friendly incentives are likely, though they may come with stricter qualifying criteria or sunset clauses.

4. Savings and Pensions Under Review

There’s speculation that ISAs and pension tax reliefs could see some tweaking. The Treasury may look at consolidating different ISA products, or adjusting pension contribution rules to encourage investment into UK companies rather than overseas markets.

For savers, this might not mean dramatic change, but it’s worth watching for any shifts that alter how savings and investments are taxed.

5. Investment in Productivity and Infrastructure

Reeves has been clear that boosting productivity is one of her top priorities. Expect announcements on infrastructure, planning reform, and possibly a new round of funding for advanced manufacturing, digital skills and green energy projects.

These investments tend to take time to deliver returns, but they’re critical to long-term economic stability, and to showing that “growth” isn’t just a buzzword.

What It Could Mean for You

For business owners and individuals alike, the message is clear: plan ahead.

If you’re running a small business, keep an eye on business rates, corporation tax reliefs and incentives for capital investment. It might be worth reviewing planned purchases or upgrades before the Budget lands, just in case thresholds or rules change.

If you’re an individual saver or property owner, pay attention to any updates around ISA limits, pension relief, or property taxation. Even a small policy shift can have a big impact on long-term plans.

And for those on PAYE, remember that frozen thresholds effectively mean higher tax bills over time. It’s not new, but it’s becoming more noticeable as inflation and wage increases push people into higher bands.

A Budget of Small Moves with Big Impacts

This isn’t likely to be a Budget full of dramatic headlines. Instead, it’ll probably be about incremental changes, small adjustments that quietly add up.

Freezing thresholds, trimming reliefs, reshaping incentives; these are the moves that raise revenue without overtly breaking manifesto pledges.

What Reeves will want to do is show she’s being responsible: steadying the ship, supporting growth, but not taking unnecessary risks. The hope is that this Budget starts to restore confidence, particularly among businesses and investors who’ve faced years of uncertainty.

In the weeks ahead, keep an eye on:

· Pre-Budget hints from HM Treasury and the Office for Budget Responsibility

· Any leaks around changes to property tax or savings reliefs

· Early indications of spending priorities for 2026

At Elements of Finance, we’ll be watching it all closely and breaking down what the announcements mean in plain English, not Treasury speak.

Whether it’s helping clients prepare for tax changes, reviewing investment plans, or re-thinking business cashflow, the key is to stay proactive rather than reactive.

This year’s Budget might not be headline-grabbing, but make no mistake, it’ll set the tone for what’s ahead.